Artesia, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

420
FXUS66 KLOX 060633
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1033 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...05/1155 AM.

Much cooler temperatures are expected Friday as a weak upper low
moves into the area. Warmer temperatures will return Saturday and
peak Sunday with highs around 10 degrees above normal. A return to
normal temperatures is expected by next Tuesday with a chance of
light rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...05/756 PM.

***UPDATE***

Rather quiet wx across SW CA this evening. A wide swath of mid and
hi level clouds were over the region and will continue overnight.
Any low clouds that develop over the coastal waters later tonight
would affect the immediate coast S of Point Conception. However,
the presence of the cloud cover may prevent any low clouds from
forming overnight.

There is also some mid level instability, and with an upper level
trof approaching the region from just off the coast, there may be
a few light showers developing overnight, Already, radar was
showing elevated showers over many areas SE and E of L.A. County
this evening and were moving NW toward the fcst area. Very dry
below about 10 to 12 thousand feet, so any showers may be hard
pressed to reach the ground. There will also be a non-zero (less
then 10 percent) chance of an isolated mainly dry thunderstorm
with any shower activity overnight, but is not reflected in the
forecast due to the very low chance. The very low chance of an
isolated thunderstorm will continue on Friday.

***From Previous Discussion***

In the very short term, significant cooling is expected tomorrow
as gradients actually turn onshore for the first time in several
days. Some patchy low clouds and fog are possible near the coast
in the morning and by afternoon most areas should be at least 5-10
degrees cooler than today. This is the result of a weak upper low
splitting off from a trough in the Pac NW and moving into our
coastal waters region Friday and then moving onshore over northern
Baja on Saturday. The low has some energy associated with it as
demonstrated by the cooling cloud tops a few hundred miles west of
Pt Conception. Models are picking up on this as well, showing
some weak instability tomorrow, mainly over the mountains. This is
likely what the ensemble models were seeing earlier in the week
when they were indicating some possibilities for light precip in
the area Friday. This is still not a zero chance, and if something
happens it would more likely be an isolated dry lightning strike
in the mountains. But also can`t rule out a brief and isolated
light shower just about anywhere. Chances are less than 15% and
thus not enough to put in the official forecast.

The upper low will exit the area by Friday night with dry and
warmer conditions Saturday and peaking Sunday as gradients turn
back offshore and high pressure aloft returns. Not expecting a
return of advisory level northeast winds but could see some breezy
conditions in the usual areas that are favored for Santa Ana
winds. Highs expected to return to the low to mid 80s across the
valleys by Sunday (or possibly as early as Saturday) and some
coastal areas as well.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...05/1238 PM.

High pressure aloft will begin to shift east out of the area
Monday but not before another day of well above normal
temperatures.

Much cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday and the rest of next
week as the upper level pattern finally changes to more of a
troughy pattern along the West coast. The first chance for rain
still appears to be on Tuesday and models continue to indicate
just a very light amounts of precip with that one, likely under a
quarter inch in most areas. And there are at least 20-30% of the
ensemble solutions showing little or no rain with this first
system.

There`s a second and third system later in the week into early the
following week (between the 14th and 18th), the latter of which
appears to be the strongest of the trio. Up until that time, most
of the models are favoring mostly just light rain amounts. But
there is overall high confidence in much cooler temperatures
locally.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0536Z.

At 0512Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deeps with an
inversion to 2700 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

For remaining sites, low confidence in flight cat through 18Z,
then high confidence in VFR conds thereafter. High clouds are
blocking any view of low clouds, and there is a 20-50% chance for
no low clouds at sites where clouds forecasted, highest away from
coast. If low clouds develop, moderate confidence in VLIFR to
LIFR conds for KSMX, KSBP, and KPRB. For remaining sites, moderate
confidence in IFR to VFR conds, with LIFR conds possible
(10-30%), highest chances at KBUR/KVNY.

No significant wind issues anticipated, however, less than 10%
chance for an isolated shower and lightning strike anywhere,
highest over mountains Friday afternoon.

KLAX...Low confidence in minimum flight cat through 18Z. 30%
chance for no cigs tonight, but moderate confidence in 007-012
being lowest cig height. 10% chance for cigs 002-005. High
confidence in VFR conds after 18Z. 30% chance for east wind
component over 6 kt through 19Z, but should not be greater than 8
kt.

KBUR...Low confidence in minimum flight cat through 18Z. 50%
chance for no cigs tonight, but moderate confidence in 005-010
being lowest cig height. 30% chance for cigs 002-005. High
confidence in VFR conds after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/1032 PM.

Long period westerly swell will build tonight across the outer
waters, and seas are likely to reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels by Friday morning across the Outer Waters and nearshore
along the Central Coast. Large seas of 10 feet or greater for the
outer waters and northern inner waters could last through
Saturday evening, and seas of 7 to 8 feet could linger for the
southern inner waters into Saturday night.

There is moderate chance for winds to reach SCA levels across the
Outer waters late Saturday afternoon into evening hours.
Confidence is higher that by Sunday afternoon/evening SCA level
winds will become widespread, and these winds may persist well
into next week. SCA winds have the potential to spread into the
Santa Barbara Channel & western portions of the PZZ655. There is
also a chance for GALES across climatologically favored outer
waters. Elevated up to SCA level seas are also possible, as
several rounds of swells propagate into our coastal waters mid-
week.

The long period westerly swell will be capable of creating
dangerous breaking waves and strong currents at west-facing harbor
entrances including Morro Bay Harbor and the Ventura Harbor
Friday through early Saturday morning. Large breaking waves
nearshore are especially dangerous for small boats, and may
capsize vessels. Boaters are urged to remain in safe harbor until
conditions improve.

&&

.BEACHES...05/1024 PM.

An active storm pattern over the northern Pacific Ocean will
generate a series of swells for the southern California Coast,
first arriving on Friday and lasting well into next week.
Advisory level surf is expected Friday through Saturday for all
beaches, though the highest swell will be across west facing
coasts. Elevated to high surf will be possible through Monday
into Tuesday (and possibly longer), with the highest surf expected
for the Central Coast and Ventura County Coast.

Peak surf heights are likely to be between 10 to 15 ft for west-
facing beaches along the Central Coast, and between 5 and 10 ft
south of Point Conception. Additionally, the long period westerly
swell may create dangerous breaking waves and strong currents at
west-facing harbor entrances including Morro Bay Harbor and the
Ventura Harbor Friday through early Saturday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346-349-350-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM PST
      Saturday for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 3 PM PST
      Saturday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PST
      Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
BEACHES...Phillips/Black/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox